Saturday, February 5, 2011

UFC 126 Unintelligent Predictions - Micah C's take

After the downright epic staredown yesterday, I don't know a single MMA fan that isn't completely and totally psyched for tomorrow's card. It's going to be an intense night of fights, to say the least, so let's go ahead and get to my predictions, eh?

Torres vs Banuelos
Vegas Odds: -300 Torres, +400 Banuelos

What I think: To be quite honest with you, I'm not one hundred percent convinced that Miguel is completely out of his slump. He's a great fighter, but Banuelos has looked a little bit better as of late. I expect this one to be a scrap, but I've got this feeling that Banuelos is a pretty safe underdog pick in this one. So, I'm going to take Banuelos by Decision. I could be wrong, but I don't care.

Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader
Vegas Odds: -350 Jones, +250 Bader

What I think: First, I think whoever thought up those odds in Vegas is an idiot. Second, I think that this is a really tough test for Jon Jones. First and foremost, Bader has quite a bit more credentials than Jones does, both inside and outside the octagon. Bader has been fighting longer, in actuality has three more fights than Jones (his three bouts in the TUF house against Lawlor, Kingsbury, and Marshall), and is also a much more experienced wrestler. On top of that, he's arguably fought tougher competition. So far, the logic I've seen from most people is "Jon Jones spins a lot, so he wins, herp derp." I'm taking Bader by decision here.

Jake Ellenburger vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Vegas Odds: -350 Ellenburger, +250 Rocha

What I think: Popcorn break. Why is this on the main card and Yamamoto is on Facebook? WTF Joe Silva? Ellenburger by whatever.

Rich Franklin vs Forrest Griffin
Vegas Odds: -150 Franklin, +155 Griffin

What I think: More than likely going to be fight of the night, in my estimation. Both of these guys are well rounded. Forrest is bigger, but Rich is faster. Forrest is a BJJ black belt under Drysdale, and Franklin has great submission defense. All of these facts are true. However, I think the one thing people have understated in this bout is that Rich has a lot more power in his hands than Forrest does. I expect these two to beat the ever loving crap out of one another, but I'm betting that Rich's ability to deal out punishment on the feet will put Forrest away. I'm saying Rick Franklin by KO, round 3.

Main Event: Anderson Silva vs Vitor Belfort
Vegas Odds: -280 Anderson, +210 Vitor

What I think: Truthfully, I think that Vitor is a fairly safe bet if you're a betting man. He does have a solid toolset to beat Anderson. However, the same can be said of Dan Henderson, Fael Sonnen, Forrest Griffin, Rich Franklin, and others. At the end of the day, I think that it boils down to the fact that Vitor is an aggressive striker, and Anderson is one of the best counter-punchers in the business. As the fight goes on, it will favor Anderson, and we'll see Vitor's second (or is it third?) comeback put to rest by the Spider. So, I say Anderson Silva by TKO, Round 2. Fun fact: Both the main event and co-main event feature a 205 pound champion facing a person to hold the 185 strap.

Shawn Tompkins is a glorious bastard.

-Micah C

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